Target #24: Ebola RdRp - unofficial progress estimate

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Garrulus glandarius

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Message 2507 - Posted: 12 Nov 2025, 11:27:15 UTC
Last modified: 12 Nov 2025, 11:29:27 UTC

In order not to hijack the #23 or any other threads, I made a new one dedicated to following the progress of the current target, #24. I will add a chart generated with Google Sheets that should automatically update when I add new data to it.

As mentioned in another thread, I'm currently adding one data point/day, straight from the server status page, sometime around midday UTC. The sheet calculates the total progress made during the last ~5 days (5 datapoints) and calculates an end date based on remaining work.

The chart looks a bit weird, please share any ideas to improve it. The Y axis represents the dates on which progress was recorded, with the last date at the top (so the chart essentially starts from the bottom and is snaking up every day). The X axis shows the estimated date of completion. When the line is moving to the left, the project has been speeding up the past 5 days compared to the previous 5 day interval (meaning 6-to-1 days ago).

Right now we can see that progress has been accelerating for 5 days straight. Cheers to everyone contributing!


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Garrulus glandarius

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Message 2510 - Posted: 20 Nov 2025, 20:28:05 UTC

Old chart got borked, here's an updated one. A rotated the whole thing and added another line. The blue one is based on the average rate of progress from the past 5 days while the green line averages progress since the beginning (Nov 5th). Theoretically the blue one is more accurate because it's based only on recent data, but since speed will probably fluctuate in both directions over the next months, the green line seems like a useful baseline.

After the initial speeding up there has been a significant slowdown the past couple of days, pushing the completion estimate all the way into February 2027.


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Laze

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Message 2514 - Posted: 30 Nov 2025, 5:33:30 UTC - in response to Message 2510.  

Thank you for this update. It´s good to get this statistics and estimation of completion-date.
Thank you!
Best regards
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Garrulus glandarius

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Message 2517 - Posted: 28 Dec 2025, 10:14:17 UTC

Seems like the holidays and the constant work over at Rosetta and WCG have taken their toll on SiDock, at least based on the drop in completion rate after the 24th. I have to admit that I'm among those who moved all their firepower over to Rosetta while the tasks last.
The last of the new Rosetta tasks are being sent out as I'm writing these lines, so from now on it will be everyone's cache + sporadic resends which should run out in about 2 days. Aftwerards I'll be coming back to SiDock with most of my CPUs.
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Laze

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Message 2518 - Posted: 29 Dec 2025, 17:16:25 UTC - in response to Message 2517.  
Last modified: 29 Dec 2025, 17:17:37 UTC

Seems like the holidays and the constant work over at Rosetta and WCG have taken their toll on SiDock, at least based on the drop in completion rate after the 24th. I have to admit that I'm among those who moved all their firepower over to Rosetta while the tasks last.
The last of the new Rosetta tasks are being sent out as I'm writing these lines, so from now on it will be everyone's cache + sporadic resends which should run out in about 2 days. Aftwerards I'll be coming back to SiDock with most of my CPUs.


Understood. For me, I am running SIDock as much as I can and it is the only project I contribute currently. I did not know there were Rosetta-tasks again, but I think I would stick to SIDock anyway - just to not have to login to other projects after a reinstalling of my OS.

- Is there any chance of an updated completion-estimation/chart?
Would be very interesting IMO. But of course not a must, only if you want to.

Wishing you a very nice new years eve and and a great new year! :)

Best regards
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Garrulus glandarius

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Message 2519 - Posted: 29 Dec 2025, 17:20:30 UTC - in response to Message 2518.  

Seems like the holidays and the constant work over at Rosetta and WCG have taken their toll on SiDock, at least based on the drop in completion rate after the 24th. I have to admit that I'm among those who moved all their firepower over to Rosetta while the tasks last.
The last of the new Rosetta tasks are being sent out as I'm writing these lines, so from now on it will be everyone's cache + sporadic resends which should run out in about 2 days. Aftwerards I'll be coming back to SiDock with most of my CPUs.


Understood. For me, I am running SIDock as much as I can and it is the only project I contribute currently. I did not know there were Rosetta-tasks again, but I think I would stick to SIDock anyway - just to not have to login to other projects after a reinstalling of my OS.

- Is there any chance of an updated completion-estimation/chart?
Would be very interesting IMO. But of course not a must, only if you want to.

Wishing you a very nice new years eve and and a great new year! :)

Best regards


The chart is updated almost every day. When I miss a day or two, I fill the missing data by simple interpolation to avoid distorting the time axis.
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Laze

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Message 2520 - Posted: 30 Dec 2025, 16:40:42 UTC - in response to Message 2519.  

The chart is updated almost every day. When I miss a day or two, I fill the missing data by simple interpolation to avoid distorting the time axis.


I see. Any link to the chart? Or if you kindly can post a screenshot here for me to see? Only of you have time and want to of course.
Thanks!
Best regards
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Garrulus glandarius

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Message 2521 - Posted: 30 Dec 2025, 16:42:44 UTC - in response to Message 2520.  

The chart is updated almost every day. When I miss a day or two, I fill the missing data by simple interpolation to avoid distorting the time axis.


I see. Any link to the chart? Or if you kindly can post a screenshot here for me to see? Only of you have time and want to of course.
Thanks!
Best regards


Uhh.. it's supposed to be embedded into this message. I see it update automatically from time to time.
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Laze

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Message 2522 - Posted: 30 Dec 2025, 23:25:30 UTC - in response to Message 2521.  

The chart is updated almost every day. When I miss a day or two, I fill the missing data by simple interpolation to avoid distorting the time axis.


I see. Any link to the chart? Or if you kindly can post a screenshot here for me to see? Only of you have time and want to of course.
Thanks!
Best regards


Uhh.. it's supposed to be embedded into this message. I see it update automatically from time to time.


Thank you. I did not know this and did not realize it was updating in the same message over time.
Best regards and happy new year!
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Garrulus glandarius

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Message 2526 - Posted: 7 Jan 2026, 8:48:23 UTC

Happy New Year to all crunchers!
I've been away for a few days so I had to interpolate for days between Jan 2-7, but through the period the average speed of progress has hit new records, averaging over 0,32%/day.
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Message boards : Number crunching : Target #24: Ebola RdRp - unofficial progress estimate

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